Customs union within EuroAzEc unlikely to take effect in early 2010: experts Experts argue despite privileges of establishment of a customs union involving Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, it is unlikely to take effect by early 2010. “I am not sure, if the custom union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will be realized up to January 2010, because there are some difficulties in the relations between Russia and Belarus,” European expert on Russia Stefan Meister said.
Russian Vice Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said on Friday that the Customs Union involving Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) can enter into force on January 1, 2010. All the documents must be prepared beforehand. There remains to coordinate 12 percent of positions with Kazakhstan. “The documents have already been received and legal framework. More than 27 international agreements already in force and 20 needs to be ratified. In fact, more than half the way has been covered,” Shuvalov said.
He said there is no problem to launch the union on Jan. 1, 2010.
However experts say there are a number of problems in the relationship between the member countries of the future union which need to be resolved till the union is launched in early 2009.
There are some political obstacles to implementing such projects, because the integration of the customs area also calls for political integration among member countries, Russian expert on the countries of the CIS Vladimir Zharikhin said.
“The political integration is complicated and we are aware that post Soviet countries are reluctant to hand over their sovereign powers to the general use,” Institute of CIS Member States Deputy Director Zharikhin told Trend News over telephone from Moscow.
Experts say despite good relations between the two countries, there are also some contradictions between them. Neither Kazakhstan nor Belarus wants to fall under Russia’s indirect influence as a dominating country in the organization.
“The establishment of a customs union does not solve all the problems of integration, as each of the countries put national interests at the forefront,” Kazakh expert Dosym Satpayev said.
For example, if Belarus gets some economic profit from its participation in the Eastern Partnership
of the EU it can lose its interest to the Customs Union, expert at the German Council on Foreign Policy Meister said.
He said Kazakhstan has developed some deeper cooperation with China, but it is not interested in to much influence of China and Russia on its foreign and domestic policy.
“On one hand, Kazakhstan backs integration, but on the other it is a proponent of protecting its own market,” Director of Risk Assessment Group (Kazakhstan) Satpayev said to Trend News over telephone from Astana
The destiny of the union depends on how the economic situation in Russia, Europe and the other two countries will further develop in the context of the financial crisis, Meister said.
“If Russia will continue to weaken and the European Union gets stronger, Kazakhstan and Belarus will be guided by the Europe and they are unlikely to create a customs union with Russia as they now promise,” European expert on the CIS Alexander Rahr said.
Moreover, Russia’s ambitions can prevent establishment of the Customs Union. If it demonstrates its desire to become a leader in the Customs Union and to dictate its own terms, Kazakhstan and Belarus will accept it negatively, the Kazakh expert said.
To ensure that the Union will be launched by early 2010, it is necessary to overcome these difficulties and to find compromises on the part of political leaders, Russian expert Zharikhin said.
Establishing this kind of union facilitate the movement of capital, services and labor force within the organization. It will also reduce interest rates and make a profitable trade between the States.
EurAsEC is an international economic organization which aims to form common foreign customs borders of the member states, designing unified foreign economic policy, tariffs, prices and other elements of a common market.
The organization brings together Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan withdrew from the organization in late 2008./Trend/